Because there is no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and promise unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business. The sports betting industry lacks oversight and regulation, meaning anyone can start a company or website and begin selling picks. In order to break even when betting on spread sports (considering standard -110 juice), a bettor must win 52.38% of the time.Īnything above 55% is considered to be highly profitable. Everyone wants to get rich quick overnight and win 70% of their bets or hit a 1,000-1 parlay, but that’s just not realistic. New bettors have lofty expectations when they first start betting. Instead, bettors should stay disciplined and limit their plays to their most confident games of the day. You are taking on massive risk and one bad night can decimate your bankroll. Betting 10 or 15 games per night is dangerous. But betting just for the sake of having action is never a good thing. If the Cubs lose the first two games of a three-game series to the Padres, it doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win the third game. The same theory applies to sports, in some ways. Your first thought might be to bet on red because it hasn’t happened in a while and it’s “due.”īut this logic is flawed: Every spin of the roulette wheel is made independent of past spins. For example, say you walk up to a roulette table and see that a black number has hit the last 10 spins. Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that if something happens more often than normal in a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future. Sports Betting for Beginners: 12 Things to Know Read now 3. This is why we generally encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news. So instead of opening the Browns at a true +10 the next game, they open +10.5 or +11, giving sharp contrarian bettors extra points and inflated line value. If the Browns are coming off a 21-point loss, the oddsmakers know that the public will want to bet against them. On the flip side, teams coming off a loss are historically undervalued. As a result, you are getting an overpriced and bad number. The next game, the oddsmakers might have a true opener of Patriots -7, but since they know the public will take the Pats no matter what, they open New England -7.5 or -8. Meanwhile, if a team just got blown out by 20 points and is on a five-game losing streak, novice bettors will automatically fade them.īut that’s a mistake: Historically, teams coming off a win are overvalued.įor example, say the Patriots just came off a 21-point blowout win. If a team looked great the previous game, or if it’s riding a four-game winning streak, novice bettors will automatically want to bet on it, simply because it’s playing well. However, it will also provide bettors with a positive Return on Investment (ROI) when doing well. If you’re starting with $1,000, every play is risking $30.Ī flat-betting approach will save bettors from going bankrupt when they hit an inevitable tough stretch. A good medium is 3% per play.įor example, if you’re starting with $100, every play is risking $3. Instead, we encourage most bettors to embrace a flat-betting approach (unless you have a true, quantifiable edge on some bets).įlat betting means betting the same amount on every game and risking only 1% to 5% of your bankroll per play. When you’re cold, never chase and try to win it all back in one fell swoop. When you’re hot, never double down and risk more because you’re overconfident. One of the worst things bettors can do is change their unit size based on how well or how poorly they’re doing. Money management may be the most important discipline needed to be a successful sports bettor. If you’re new to betting, here are nine common mistakes to avoid: 1. The key is staying the course, remaining disciplined and steadily building your bankroll over the course of the long haul. Seasoned bettors know that there will always be ups and downs. If it were, Vegas would go bankrupt and Average Joe bettors would all quit their day jobs and live lavishly as millionaires.
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